journal article Show Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General) Vol. 136, No. 1 (1973) , pp. 21-42 (22 pages) Published By: Wiley https://doi.org/10.2307/2344419 https://www.jstor.org/stable/2344419 Read and download Log in through your school or library Read Online (Free) relies on page scans, which are not currently available to screen readers. To access this article, please contact JSTOR User Support. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.With a personal account, you can read up to 100 articles each month for free. Already have an account? Log in Monthly Plan
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Abstract Subjective probability is defined and its place in decision analysis, with special reference to business problems, is identified. The literature on its measurement is critically analysed both for the single decision-maker and group. The use of direct fractile assessment and the Delphi Technique are felt to be some of the more tenable of the methods reviewed. An account of some of the behavioural aspects of decision-making with a résumé of the "risky" shift theories is included and their implications are discussed. Some practical guidelines and suggestions for further research are indicated. Publisher Information Wiley is a global provider of content and content-enabled workflow solutions in areas of scientific, technical, medical, and scholarly research; professional development; and education. Our core businesses produce scientific, technical, medical, and scholarly journals, reference works, books, database services, and advertising; professional books, subscription products, certification and training services and online applications; and education content and services including integrated online teaching and learning resources for undergraduate and graduate students and lifelong learners. Founded in 1807, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. has been a valued source of information and understanding for more than 200 years, helping people around the world meet their needs and fulfill their aspirations. Wiley has published the works of more than 450 Nobel laureates in all categories: Literature, Economics, Physiology or Medicine, Physics, Chemistry, and Peace. Wiley has partnerships with many of the world’s leading societies and publishes over 1,500 peer-reviewed journals and 1,500+ new books annually in print and online, as well as databases, major reference works and laboratory protocols in STMS subjects. With a growing open access offering, Wiley is committed to the widest possible dissemination of and access to the content we publish and supports all sustainable models of access. Our online platform, Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com) is one of the world’s most extensive multidisciplinary collections of online resources, covering life, health, social and physical sciences, and humanities. Rights & Usage This item is part of a JSTOR Collection. What is the belief that task performance will result in certain outcomes?Expectancy represents the belief that exerting a high level of effort will result in the successful performance of some task. Instrumentality represents the belief that successful performance will result in some outcome.
Which of the following terms refers to having a sense of choice in the initiation and continuation of your work tasks?Self-determination reflects a sense of choice in the initiation and continuation of work tasks.
Is the anticipated value of the outcomes associated with performance?valence. Valence allows organizations to determine if the outcome is worth the risk.
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Is a set of subjective probabilities each ranging from 0 to 1 that successful performance will bring a set of outcomes?
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