Show 4c. Measuring Public OpinionGeorge Gallup could be considered the "father of American polling." In 1935 he founded the American Institute for Public Opinion. His Gallup Organization continues to track America's opinions today. It all started in 1932 when his mother-in-law ran for public office in Iowa. She was running against a popular incumbent, and everyone except him thought her candidacy was a lost cause. He polled her constituency, told her she could win, and gave her some advice. Hers was only the first of many elections he was to predict correctly. His name was George Gallup — the founder of modern polling. Since then, polling organizations have proliferated, so that they now play a vital role in American politics. They are able to measure public opinion so accurately because they have carefully developed some very precise methods. For all the attention paid to them, public opinion polls often miss the mark. The most famous example was the 1948 presidential election, when pollsters predicted a landslide victory for Thomas E. Dewey. Instead, Harry Truman defeated Dewey by more than two million popular and 114 electoral votes. Polls generally start when someone wants a political question answered. For example, a candidate may wonder, "How many people in my district know who I am and what I do?" Polls can give some answers, which can help him or her plan a campaign for office. Or a newspaper may want to know, "How do people in this country feel about big tobacco companies?" The publisher can commission a poll, and a reporter can base a story on the research findings. The pollsters then follow several important steps in gathering accurate statistics:
Should politicians monitor the polls? Candidates have been criticized for "waffling" — shifting their positions based on the results of public opinion polls. But if a politicians is supposed to represent the true will of the people, shouldn't public opinion be highly regarded. Americans have different opinions about whether a leader is expected to use his or her own judgment or reflect the viewpoints of his or her constituency.
Poll results must be carefully and accurately compiled and reported. This is not always an easy task, especially for tracking polls that are measuring changing public opinion. A good example is an election poll. Statistics that are a week old are not usually very reliable when trying to predict a close presidential race. Polls can never be completely accurate because a sample cannot replicate the universe exactly. Pollsters allow for this slight chance of inaccuracy with a margin of error. Standard samples of about 1,000 to 1,500 individuals can usually represent a universe of millions of people with only a small amount of error. A typical margin of error — a measure of the accuracy of a public opinion poll — is about 3%. In a poll that says that 52% of the respondents favor Janet Smith for Mayor, somewhere between 49% (-3) and 55% (+3) of the voters actually do support her. You can see how predicting a close election can be very difficult. Given the challenges of accurate polling of public opinion, it is amazing that polls that follow the right steps almost always make the right predictions. They've come a long way since George Gallup helped his mother-in-law win her election in 1932. The Gallup Organization Report broken link Designing Surveys and
Questionnaires Report broken link The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research Report broken link NORC — The National Opinion Research Center Report broken link The 1948 Campaign Report broken link Public Opinion Quarterly Report broken link If you like our content, please share it on social media!How do politicians use public opinion polls quizlet?It identifies issues for resolution, brings views into political debate, helps choose the political candidates, and gives policymakers some idea of what the voters want.
Why do politicians use polls quizlet?According to research by Jacobs and Shapiro, how do politicians generally use data from public opinion polls? a. Politicians mostly use public opinion data to tell them how to vote on matters of public policy.
What is public opinion poll quizlet?What are Public opinion polls? interviews or surveys with samples of citizens that are used to estimate the feelings & beliefs of the entire population.
Which of the following is necessary for a public opinion poll to be valid quizlet?Which of the following is necessary for a public opinion poll to be valid? The poll must have a low margin of error.
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