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What is the value of the South China sea?
It's rich in oil with 11 billion barrels
10% of the world's fisheries
30% of the world's shipping trade flows through the South China sea to Asia
Whole area is worth 2.27 trillion dollars
What is the The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)?
The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (est 1982)
Establishes exclusive economic zones (EEZs)
Violated by China's 9 Dash Line, use of resources near the Spratly and Paracel Islands, and general actions in this case
What is an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)?
The sovereign territory that a country controls 200 miles off of its shores. Other countries cannot fish or extract any oil, gas, etc within that 200 miles.
Any materials within that zone are for that country
The country has complete sovereignty to explore, exploit, conserve, etc within that 200-mile region
if the regions intersect, they cut the zone in half and give some to both powers
What is China's historical/identity based claim to the South China Sea?
China was invested/dominant in the region in the 15th century/Xia dynasty and marked their territory using a 9 dash line
The territory they designated is extremely generous and not recognized by UNCLOS
What is China's 9 Dash Line?
A 9 dash line China created after WWII that encompasses 90% of the South China Sea
UN established new EEZs with the UNCLOS but China didn't adhere
What are the Spratly Islands?
A set of Islands near Malaysia claimed and occupied by China, Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines
An important piece of territory as claiming them allows countries to gain exclusive rights to the surrounding territory
What is China doing at the Spratly Islands?
Creating artificial islands using sand and installing military bases to assert their power and sovereignty in the region
Using military ships to cut off resources and access of countries to their own islands
1982
UNCLOS was established to define maritime boundaries and regulate territorial exploration
UNCLOS and 9 Dash Line do not at all align
2009
Malaysia and Vietnam submitted claims to UN to extend their EEZs beyond the 200 mile limit
First effort to bring issue to an international forum
2011*
Philippines requested a Chinese Envoy to discuss frequent naval incursions which results in minor skirmishes between ships and increased tension
Start of conflict
2012*
Scarborough Shoal Incident
After continued dismissal from China, the Philippines dispatch a war ship in the South China sea to confront Chinese fishing boats in the Scarborough Shoal north of the Spratly's
China dispatches surveillance vessels to protect them and the two powers enter a 2 month stand off
China creates fruit tariffs and the Philippines warns against tourism to China
Philippine government pursues involvement of ASEAN and an appeal to the US government
(ASEAN member nations reach an impass about China's claims in the South china sea and US doesn't care)
What is Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASEAN?
An IGO that works to promote the economic, social and general development of Southeast Asian nations
June 2012
Vietnam passes maritime law asserting its own jurisdiction over the Spratly and Paracel Islands
China responds by saying a city will be established on the Paracels to administer them
2013*
Philippines file UN arbitration based on China's sovereignty claims
China rejects to participate and makes an Air Defense Identification zone above the islands
2014*
US and Philippines sign a 10 year defense/military pact which would involve more US in the area and give them more access to bases, ports and airfields
China attempts to establish an oil rig near the Paracel islands
2015
US Warships patrol near China's artificial islands
2016***
UN Tribunal in the permanent court of arbitration in Hague (PCA) rules against China's Claims in favor of Philippines
They say:
9 Dash Line has no legal basis
Artificial land features don't fit UN requirements to extend EEZ
China doesn't recognize the court's award
November 2016
President Duterte Bans fishing in Scarborough Shoal waters essentially conceding to China as a way of boosting economic ties
2020
China increases military presence in the region, sinks Vietnamese fishing boats, and aims weapons at Philippines' ships
Connection to Power
Reveals how hard power and soft power can be used together to increase sovereignty and invalidate the use of solely soft power or hard power
Reveal the prevalence of military power as a deterrent
Reveal the weakness of relational power in halting military threats
Reveal the strength of relational power at maintaining economic relations
Connection to Sovereignty
Reveals how sovereignty is difficult to codify using soft power/treaties and documents like UNCLOS
Reveals how hard power and soft power are used to define/amplify sovereignty
Reveals the difficulty of applying sovereignty in contested regions
Connections to IR
Reveals how US and other powers become implicated/are involved in seemingly distant conflicts
Reveals how interdependence and globalization incentivize non violent conflict
The Philippines
Conflicted with China's claims in the Spratly islands due to the Spratly islands mainly being their territory as designated by the UNCLOS
Scarborough Shoal incident was mainly between these two powers
Motivations
- Maintain sovereignty over land/restore industries that had been interfered with by increased involvement from other powers
Actions
- Took control of Spratly islands in 1946 and declared them as territory
Especially made effort to maintain sovereignty over the Scarborough Shoal as that is one of the most important/major shipping lanes for the Philippines
Vietnam
Motivations
- Maintain sovereignty allotted by UNCLOS and hold economic power as a result of access to fishing
Actions
- Citizens protested against China when it built oil rigs/drilled in waters near Paracels that Vietnam claimed
- Discussed with China and ASEAN
UN
Motivations
- Settle disputes between nations within the South China Sea
- Ensure smaller powers had control of resources/had sovereignty over the South China Sea
- Ensure regulations weren't being overstepped/violated by China
Actions
- Settled dispute between China and the Philippines indirectly siding with the Philippines by saying that China had no claim to the Scarborough Shoal and that the 9 dash line was illegal and not recognized
- Created UNCLOS
- Held Tribunal between Philippines and China at the permanent court of arbitration in Hague
Vietnam
Motivations
- Maintain sovereignty allotted by UN and hold economic power as a result of access to fishing
Actions
- Citizens protested against China when it built oil rigs/drilled in waters near Paracels that Vietnam claimed
US
Motivations
- Protect sovereignty of small nations within the South China Sea
- Maintain access to South China sea for trade and military power/exercise
Actions
- Sent fleets, drones, planes and troops to the South China Sea to flex on China
- Generally trying to support powers like Vietnam and the Philippines as a way to indirectly challenge China and set a precedent for maintaining freedom and adhering to the UN documents
- Signed convention of the sea to codify regulations against China
China
Motivations
- Gain economic power from increased control of the South China Sea
- Codify the 9/10 dash line and eventually make it an acceptable part of national policy by either increasing their power or somehow garnering national acceptance
Actions
- Has been creating artificial islands in the South China Sea since 1990 to increase sovereignty and challenge territorial regulations from the UN
- Fought minor battles against Vietnam and other powers intervening and conflicting with China in the Paracels and Spratlys
- Refused to conform to UN documents and flexed back at the US using military power and new dashes in the 9 dash line
Permanent Court of Arbitration in Hague
An IGO
Helped the Philippines appeal to the arbitration court to designate the legal standings of territory and China's right to control and benefit from territory
Decided that some of the disputed lands, particularly in the Scarborough shoal weren't islands and were therefore not part of EEZs and that China's nine-dash line wouldn't be recognized internationally and was actually illegal and actively violating their documentation.
What are the identity based causes of this conflict?
China's historical/identity based claims to the South China sea. For thousands of years, China has used the South China sea for trade and resources and since 1947 have used the 9 dash line as a way to designate their territorial sovereignty/borders despite it's illegitimate perception by other actors.
Cultural perceptions can't easily be changed
What are the security/territory-based causes of this conflict?
The threat of other powers surrounding the South China Sea is a motivator for China's actions.
On either side of the South China sea, China faces threats from other powers and fears that the increasing control of powers of the South China sea will further restrict their sovereignty and undermine their security.
What are the sovereignty-based causes of this conflict?
China and other powers are so invested in this area also for the importance of having sovereignty of a region like the South China sea which has so much utility for trade as well as a high concentration of natural resources.
The sovereignty of nations in the area sovereignty is contested so China sees it as a valuable and possibly obtainable asset
What are the economic-based causes of this conflict?
The resources in South
China and having control over the South China sea are extremely valuable and essential for maintaining economic power. By controlling parts of the South China Sea,
powers can foster economic relationships, make use of valuable shipping routes and procure valuable resources like oil.
What would a realist say about this case?
- China and the US both used military power here to flex their power to one another and reveal the extent to which hard power is necessary in international relations
- China is utilizing its sheer power and the flimsiness of UN regulations to undermine them which reinforces/reflects the realist perspective of hard power being most dominant and inevitable in global politics
What would a liberalist say about this case?
- Lots of actors here were motivated/driven by liberalist ideologies. Vietnam, the Philippines and US for instance all relied on the UN to delegitimize the actions of China and reinforce their own pursuits of freedom within the South China Sea
- Furthermore, the actors here support the freedom of actors when interacting and utilizing the resources in the South China sea but also support the regulation of the sea's resources using international policies and non-state actors which is characteristic of a liberalist approach.
Connections to negative peace?
This whole case is a perfect example of how negative peace is inevitable in international relations and how economic incentives and interdependence promote negative peace
Connections to positive peace?
The ineffectiveness of IGOs in controlling China reveal the difficult of creating positive peace in international relations and pursuing the liberal world order
not really a good example
Connections to violent/nonviolent conflict?
Reveals the prevalence of non violent conflict as a result of increased interdependence and the ways in which violent conflict is minimal even in disputes with military power
Connections to military power?
Reveals the prevalence/use of military power as a deterrent which aligns with liberalism and the idea of it fading as a form of power
Connections to Soft power?
Reveals the weakness of diplomacy/its ultimate inability to cause any change in the region or limit China's sovereignty
Connections to Hard Power?
Reveals the power of hard power even as an indirect deterrent