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Terms in this set (23)
A ________ is a gradual, long-term, up-or-down movement of demand.
Trend
A ________ is an up-and-down repetitive movement that repeats itself over a time span of more than 1 year.
Seasonal pattern
________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
Qualitative
________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.
Time series
________ use management judgment, expertise, and opinion to make forecasts.
Qualitative methods
The ________ is a procedure for developing a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.
Delphi method
________ has become increasingly crucial to compete in the modern international business environment.
Technological forecasting
Inconsistent swiggley line
None of the above
Consistent swiggley line
Trend plus seasonal
One swiggley line
Trend plus irregular
________ moving averages react more slowly to recent demand changes than do ________ moving averages.
Longer-period, shorter-period
________ are good for stable demand with no pronounced behavioral patterns.
Moving averages
________ methods assume that what has occurred in the past will continue to occur in the future.
Time series
In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to ________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.
1
In adjusted exponential smoothing, the closer beta is to ________, the stronger a trend is reflected.
1
________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.
Linear trend
Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?
.01
________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.
Forecast error
________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.
MAPD
________ indicates a forecast is biased high.
Large - E
________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent variable(s) and a dependent variable.
Correlation
________ is the percentage of the variation in the dependent variable that results from the independent variable.
Coefficient of determination
Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the ________ variable that results from the ________ variable.
Dependent, independent
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